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Research

Open research, including the experiments that didn't work.

We publish model releases, technical writeups, and results in one place.

All8Model releases4Technical3
Technical2026-07-09· 4 min

PredictLM vs ModelForge: near-parity on most, orders of magnitude faster

We raced our tabular foundation model against our own AutoML agent on four standard datasets — same split, scored the same way. Near-parity on most, orders of magnitude faster, with uncertainty and explanations built in.

#predictlm #benchmark #automl #tabular #modelforge

Model release2026-06-26· 2 min

PredictLM API: self-serve access is live

The hosted PredictLM API is now self-serve — register, get a key in seconds, and call zero-training tabular prediction over HTTPS. Now with calibrated uncertainty, feature attributions, and a plain-language explanation in one call.

#predictlm #api #release #explainability

Notes2026-06-22· 2 min

It knew: predicting a number an LLM can only guess

Where will the ball land? An LLM guesses, the textbook formula ignores air resistance, and PredictLM predicts it from 600 past throws — zero-shot, no equation. The capability your AI agents are missing, in 25 seconds.

#predictlm #demo #agents #mcp

Model release2026-06-12· 1 min

The PredictLM API: hosted tabular prediction, early access open

We're opening early access to a hosted PredictLM API — zero-training regression and classification over HTTPS, with calibrated probabilities. Manually onboarded, one conversation at a time.

#predictlm #api #early-access

Model release2026-05-27· 8 min

PredictLM v1: 0.751 cls / 0.609 reg on OpenML via test-time training

Two open-weight tabular models (Mini 13M, Base 26M, Apache-2.0) and a test-time training recipe that hits 0.751 classification accuracy on a 25-dataset OpenML benchmark. Plus 11 architecture experiments that didn't move the needle.

#predictlm #release #test-time-training #negative-results

Model release2026-05-26· 3 min

PredictLM-Mini: a 13M-parameter tabular foundation model with calibrated uncertainty

The smallest open-weight tabular foundation model with calibrated uncertainty out of the box. 13M parameters, 54 MB, Apache-2.0. Statistically tied with Base on classification accuracy and within ~4 pp R² on regression.

#predictlm #release #distillation #calibration

Technical2026-05-25· 4 min

Six architectural experiments. Five lost. Here's what we shipped.

Before settling on Mini's architecture, we ran six experiments at the 26–57M parameter scale. Five lost to the smaller model. Here's the full writeup, including the gradient-NaN debugging.

#predictlm #ablation #negative-results

Technical2026-05-24· 5 min

BarDistribution: why every regressor should return a distribution

A 1024-bin quantile head is the difference between a guess and a calibrated prediction. We explain how the head works, why softmax-over-bins beats Gaussian heads for in-context regression, and what the distribution unlocks.

#calibration #uncertainty #predictlm